Bear Market Looming

Growing up as a kid, no matter how bad it got, there was always the giddy feeling in the back of my mind around Christmas. Christmas endears presents, family, and time off from work or school and all that entails. I feel the same way about bear markets. Once the trend reverses, stocks and markets move fast. As an option trader, I see potential, opportunities, and lots of volatility. Put contracts are the method of operation and best choice for bearish markets. The put contract has a natural advantage over its call cousin, and that is in addition to deltas and gammas working for you. Puts also have Vega’s working alongside the other two. That is because as markets fall, volatility rises, and Vega is the measurement of how the option price increases as volatility rises. Options generally prefer faster movement of the underlying due to time decay. Since markets tend to fall faster than markets rise, this provides ideal conditions for put. Fast moves, increasing option prices, and leverage all point to the put contract.

Dow Theory suggested markets move in cycles. Cycles last 4 to 7 years on average. With 2016 being at the markets 7 year high, the Bear market is overdue. Now I don’t suggest we run around like Chicken Little saying the “sky is falling.” However, if we are prepared, we shall not fear, and maybe even profit from it. Draw your lower trend lines, your support levels, check your moving average cross overs, and then when the market changes, change with it and buy some puts.

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